1150324 meeting
收尾工作 v3.0
目錄
實驗介紹
本次進行以下實驗,詳細實驗設定參考下節。
| 控制變因 | 實驗 1 | 實驗 2 | 實驗 3 | 實驗 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 迭代次數 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| 訓練策略 | $SSSD^{S4 + AFRK}$ | $SSSD^{S4}$ | $SSSD^{S4 + AFRK}$ | $SSSD^{S4}$ |
| 時間重塑 | false | false | true | true |
| 併入時間步 $p$ | — | — | 8 / 24 | 8 / 24 |
| Input Channels | 3 / 1 | 3 / 1 | 24 / 24 | 24 / 24 |
| S4 Max Seq. Length | 664 / 1,992 | 664 / 1,992 | 83 / 83 | 83 / 83 |
| Missing $k$ | 72 / 216 | 72 / 216 | 9 / 9 | 9 / 9 |
實驗命名依上表不同可區分如下:
- 實驗 1
- Weather2k-1var-S4+AFRK
- MERRA2-1var-S4+AFRK
- 實驗 2
- Weather2k-1var-S4
- MERRA2-1var-S4
- 實驗 3
- Weather2k-S4+AFRK
- MERRA2-S4+AFRK
- 實驗 4
- Weather2k-S4
- MERRA2-S4
實驗設定
本次實驗使用設定如下所示,僅輸入出通道(channels)、時間序列長度(s4 max sequence length)、缺失值(missing $k$)、是否啟用 AFRK(enable spatial training)及目錄與路徑會依實驗內容不同而有更動。以下呈現 Weather2k-S4+AFRK 設定。
model.yaml
| |
training.yaml
| |
inference.yaml
| |
下節呈現各實驗結果。
實驗 1
Weather2k-1var-S4+AFRK
推論階段 AFRK 之 MRTS 基底數:382
| Metric | ALL Locs & All Time | Known Locs & All Time | Unknown Locs & All Time | ALL Locs & Future | Known Locs & Future | Unknown Locs & Future | ALL Locs & Past | Known Locs & Past | Unknown Locs & Past |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSPE | 1.777260e+00 | 1.095429e+00 | 4.497294e+00 | 1.156576e+01 | 1.119772e+01 | 1.303397e+01 | 7.158574e-01 | 6.739534e-08 | 3.571630e+00 |
| RMSPE | 1.333139e+00 | 1.046627e+00 | 2.120682e+00 | 3.400846e+00 | 3.346299e+00 | 3.610259e+00 | 8.460835e-01 | 2.596061e-04 | 1.889876e+00 |
| MSPE% | 2.567112e+09 | 1.180695e+09 | 8.097949e+09 | 1.469806e+10 | 1.206933e+10 | 2.518488e+10 | 1.251707e+09 | 3.655102e+01 | 6.245149e+09 |
| RMSPE% | 5.066667e+04 | 3.436125e+04 | 8.998861e+04 | 1.212356e+05 | 1.098605e+05 | 1.586975e+05 | 3.537948e+04 | 6.045744e+00 | 7.902626e+04 |
| MAPE | 4.787724e-01 | 2.541741e-01 | 1.374764e+00 | 2.625371e+00 | 2.596339e+00 | 2.741186e+00 | 2.460088e-01 | 2.044081e-04 | 1.226597e+00 |
| MAPE% | 1.159137e+08 | 5.582894e+07 | 3.556099e+08 | 6.475901e+08 | 5.704523e+08 | 9.553162e+08 | 5.826201e+07 | 2.641063e+04 | 2.905815e+08 |
MERRA2-1var-S4+AFRK
推論階段 AFRK 之 MRTS 基底數:279
| Metric | ALL Locs & All Time | Known Locs & All Time | Unknown Locs & All Time | ALL Locs & Future | Known Locs & Future | Unknown Locs & Future | ALL Locs & Past | Known Locs & Past | Unknown Locs & Past |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSPE | 1.457280 | 1.218734 | 2.411465 | 11.640954 | 11.743967 | 11.228906 | 0.353027 | 0.077444 | 1.455357 |
| RMSPE | 1.207179 | 1.103963 | 1.552889 | 3.411884 | 3.426947 | 3.350956 | 0.594160 | 0.278288 | 1.206382 |
| MSPE% | 0.005238 | 0.004378 | 0.008681 | 0.041844 | 0.042200 | 0.040421 | 0.001269 | 0.000276 | 0.005239 |
| RMSPE% | 0.072375 | 0.066163 | 0.093170 | 0.204559 | 0.205426 | 0.201050 | 0.035621 | 0.016623 | 0.072381 |
| MAPE | 0.573689 | 0.473114 | 0.975991 | 2.676405 | 2.698873 | 2.586532 | 0.345684 | 0.231766 | 0.801355 |
| MAPE% | 0.002058 | 0.001697 | 0.003498 | 0.009638 | 0.009718 | 0.009317 | 0.001236 | 0.000828 | 0.002867 |
實驗 2
Weather2k-1var-S4
推論階段 AFRK 之 MRTS 基底數:382
| Metric | ALL Locs & All Time | Known Locs & All Time | Unknown Locs & All Time | ALL Locs & Future | Known Locs & Future | Unknown Locs & Future | ALL Locs & Past | Known Locs & Past | Unknown Locs & Past |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSPE | 1.788776e+00 | 1.101298e+00 | 4.531336e+00 | 1.166086e+01 | 1.123812e+01 | 1.334732e+01 | 7.183094e-01 | 2.125255e-03 | 3.575386e+00 |
| RMSPE | 1.337451e+00 | 1.049428e+00 | 2.128694e+00 | 3.414800e+00 | 3.352330e+00 | 3.653398e+00 | 8.475313e-01 | 4.610048e-02 | 1.890869e+00 |
| MSPE% | 2.545541e+09 | 1.154597e+09 | 8.094442e+09 | 1.446088e+10 | 1.180201e+10 | 2.506792e+10 | 1.253516e+09 | 5.794382e+04 | 6.253943e+09 |
| RMSPE% | 5.045336e+04 | 3.397936e+04 | 8.996911e+04 | 1.202534e+05 | 1.086371e+05 | 1.583285e+05 | 3.540503e+04 | 2.407152e+02 | 7.908188e+04 |
| MAPE | 5.045567e-01 | 2.856643e-01 | 1.377785e+00 | 2.617143e+00 | 2.582874e+00 | 2.753856e+00 | 2.754810e-01 | 3.656930e-02 | 1.228573e+00 |
| MAPE% | 1.171785e+08 | 5.736193e+07 | 3.558051e+08 | 6.518128e+08 | 5.763690e+08 | 9.527813e+08 | 5.920611e+07 | 1.084051e+06 | 2.910727e+08 |
MERRA2-1var-S4
推論階段 AFRK 之 MRTS 基底數:279
| Metric | ALL Locs & All Time | Known Locs & All Time | Unknown Locs & All Time | ALL Locs & Future | Known Locs & Future | Unknown Locs & Future | ALL Locs & Past | Known Locs & Past | Unknown Locs & Past |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSPE | 1.322870 | 1.067455 | 2.344527 | 10.763462 | 10.798014 | 10.625253 | 0.299191 | 0.012334 | 1.446617 |
| RMSPE | 1.150161 | 1.033177 | 1.531185 | 3.280772 | 3.286033 | 3.259640 | 0.546983 | 0.111060 | 1.202754 |
| MSPE% | 0.004761 | 0.003839 | 0.008449 | 0.038727 | 0.038831 | 0.038313 | 0.001078 | 0.000044 | 0.005210 |
| RMSPE% | 0.068998 | 0.061958 | 0.091917 | 0.196792 | 0.197056 | 0.195737 | 0.032828 | 0.006668 | 0.072183 |
| MAPE | 0.463167 | 0.337546 | 0.965651 | 2.587352 | 2.603029 | 2.524640 | 0.232834 | 0.091891 | 0.796604 |
| MAPE% | 0.001664 | 0.001215 | 0.003462 | 0.009320 | 0.009376 | 0.009100 | 0.000834 | 0.000330 | 0.002851 |
實驗 3
Weather2k-S4+AFRK
推論階段 AFRK 之 MRTS 基底數:
MERRA2-S4+AFRK
推論階段 AFRK 之 MRTS 基底數:279
| Metric | ALL Locs & All Time | Known Locs & All Time | Unknown Locs & All Time | ALL Locs & Future | Known Locs & Future | Unknown Locs & Future | ALL Locs & Past | Known Locs & Past | Unknown Locs & Past |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSPE | 1.140229 | 0.882394 | 2.171568 | 9.079661 | 9.011821 | 9.351019 | 0.279326 | 0.000890 | 1.393073 |
| RMSPE | 1.067815 | 0.939358 | 1.473624 | 3.013248 | 3.001970 | 3.057944 | 0.528513 | 0.029829 | 1.180285 |
| MSPE% | 0.004114 | 0.003181 | 0.007843 | 0.032777 | 0.032492 | 0.033918 | 0.001006 | 0.000003 | 0.005015 |
| RMSPE% | 0.064138 | 0.056405 | 0.088559 | 0.181045 | 0.180256 | 0.184167 | 0.031711 | 0.001785 | 0.070819 |
| MAPE | 0.389224 | 0.255779 | 0.923002 | 2.409816 | 2.415783 | 2.385948 | 0.170123 | 0.021562 | 0.764369 |
| MAPE% | 0.001399 | 0.000922 | 0.003310 | 0.008692 | 0.008711 | 0.008616 | 0.000609 | 0.000077 | 0.002735 |
實驗 4
Weather2k-S4
推論階段 AFRK 之 MRTS 基底數:382
| Metric | ALL Locs & All Time | Known Locs & All Time | Unknown Locs & All Time | ALL Locs & Future | Known Locs & Future | Unknown Locs & Future | ALL Locs & Past | Known Locs & Past | Unknown Locs & Past |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSPE | 2.146923e+00 | 1.491940e+00 | 4.759850e+00 | 1.541907e+01 | 1.524032e+01 | 1.613216e+01 | 7.077740e-01 | 1.150945e-03 | 3.526709e+00 |
| RMSPE | 1.465238e+00 | 1.221450e+00 | 2.181708e+00 | 3.926713e+00 | 3.903886e+00 | 4.016486e+00 | 8.412931e-01 | 3.392558e-02 | 1.877953e+00 |
| MSPE% | 2.674239e+09 | 1.261257e+09 | 8.311057e+09 | 1.581830e+10 | 1.288685e+10 | 2.751273e+10 | 1.248980e+09 | 6.501120e+05 | 6.228948e+09 |
| RMSPE% | 5.171305e+04 | 3.551417e+04 | 9.116500e+04 | 1.257708e+05 | 1.135203e+05 | 1.658696e+05 | 3.534091e+04 | 8.062952e+02 | 7.892368e+04 |
| MAPE | 5.300836e-01 | 3.167455e-01 | 1.381154e+00 | 3.002617e+00 | 2.997532e+00 | 3.022904e+00 | 2.619775e-01 | 2.605781e-02 | 1.203133e+00 |
| MAPE% | 1.218048e+08 | 6.210712e+07 | 3.599568e+08 | 6.871984e+08 | 6.082632e+08 | 1.002095e+09 | 6.049701e+07 | 2.885384e+06 | 2.903274e+08 |
MERRA2-S4
推論階段 AFRK 之 MRTS 基底數:279
| Metric | ALL Locs & All Time | Known Locs & All Time | Unknown Locs & All Time | ALL Locs & Future | Known Locs & Future | Unknown Locs & Future | ALL Locs & Past | Known Locs & Past | Unknown Locs & Past |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSPE | 1.072151 | 0.811033 | 2.116623 | 8.314274 | 8.205127 | 8.750863 | 0.286861 | 0.009264 | 1.397248 |
| RMSPE | 1.035447 | 0.900574 | 1.454862 | 2.883448 | 2.864459 | 2.958186 | 0.535594 | 0.096251 | 1.182052 |
| MSPE% | 0.003874 | 0.002930 | 0.007649 | 0.030075 | 0.029644 | 0.031798 | 0.001033 | 0.000033 | 0.005031 |
| RMSPE% | 0.062239 | 0.054128 | 0.087460 | 0.173422 | 0.172176 | 0.178320 | 0.032134 | 0.005749 | 0.070927 |
| MAPE | 0.422152 | 0.296720 | 0.923877 | 2.354507 | 2.354006 | 2.356511 | 0.212619 | 0.073641 | 0.768531 |
| MAPE% | 0.001518 | 0.001069 | 0.003314 | 0.008501 | 0.008497 | 0.008519 | 0.000761 | 0.000263 | 0.002750 |
參考資料
- Zhu X, Xiong Y, Wu M, et al. Weather2K: A Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Benchmark Dataset for Meteorological Forecasting Based on Real-Time Observation Data from Ground Weather Stations[C]//International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. PMLR, 2023: 2704-2722.
- Juan Lopez Alcaraz 、 Nils Strodthoff(2022)。Diffusion-based time series imputation and forecasting with structured state space models。Transactions on Machine Learning Research。參考自 https://openreview.net/forum?id=hHiIbk7ApW
- SSSD(2022)。GitHub。參考自 https://github.com/AI4HealthUOL/SSSD


